The faculty member of the community nutrition group announced: Simulation of predicting possible trends and reviewing policy interventions for covid 19 has been underway since March 6, and the initial results have been ready for use within two months..
According to the public relations report of the Institute of Nutritional Research and Food Industry, Dr. Hassan Eini Zeinab said this.: Demographic simulation of various policy options related to the prevalence of Qovid 19 disease in Iran using the 2016 census data of the Statistics Center.
He added: در شبیه سازی جمعیتی، یک میلیون و ۵۷۰ هزار نفری که داده ها بودند در سطح فردی از روز اول شیوع بیماری کرونا برابر شبیه سازی بنده که اوایل بهمن فرض شده بود در معرض بیماری قرارگرفت. In this project, the onset of the disease was initially from three cities of Qom, Tehran and Rasht. And intercity trips also put the population of other cities at risk for Qovid-19..
The faculty member of the community nutrition group stated: The duration of the simulation period is 200 days, so that the outbreak of the disease begins on the first of Bahman and its course is examined until the beginning of September..
Dr. Eini Zeinab stated: The National Committee for Epidemiology of the Corona Headquarters at the Ministry of Health has also simulated the use of Quaid 19 with the method and data used and the possibility of further studies on policy options..
وی به تست ۸ سناریوی سیاستی مرتبط با شیوع کووید ۱۹ در شبیه سازی جمعیتی اشاره کرد و گفت: در ابتدا بیان کردیم که ما اگر هیچ مداخله ای انجام ندهیم، چه اتفاقی خواهد افتاد و در صورت عدم حضور مداخلات حدود ۸۹ هزار مرگ را در پایان روز ۲۰۰ ام می توانیم داشته باشیم، ما فقط می خواهیم بدانیم اگر سیاستی را اجرا می کنیم در مقایسه با آن سناریوی بدون مداخله چه اتفاقی خواهد افتاد یعنی کدام سناریوی سیاستی می تواند موجب کاهش بیشتر مرگ و میر شود.
The faculty member of the community nutrition group added: In the next scenarios, from the 60th day of simulation, policies will be implemented to control the spread of the disease. For example, if we cut off inter-provincial traffic, how much will we help reduce mortality or how many people will not get corona? The second example is that if students are quarantined at home from the 60th day. What will be the disease indicators? What if people over the age of 60 are quarantined at home from the 60th day? If only people who are employed are allowed to leave the house and the rest are quarantined at home, how will the relevant indicators change?
Zinab added objectively: We have the most effective scenario in a situation where only employed people are allowed to travel, in which case deaths will be reduced by more than three-quarters, and fewer people will be affected by the disease, from 89,000 deaths without intervention. We reach 19,000.
The faculty member of the Community Nutrition Department concluded: We provided simulation results to policymakers so they could use them in their policies and planning.
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